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On October 7 2004, the Hilton Taba was hit by a bomv that
killed 34 people, including Israeli vacationers. Aome 3
weeks later, and inquiry by the Egyptian Interiou Ministry
into the bombing concluded that the perpetrators received no
external help but were aided by Bedouins on the peninsula.
The GCP event was set for 19:00 to 23:00 UTC, a four hour
period giving time for the news to spread. The result is
Chisquare 14618.506 on 14400 df, for p = 0.099 and Z =
1.285.
It is important to keep in mind that we have only a tiny
statistical
effect, so that it is always hard to distinguish signal from
noise. This means that every "success" might be largely
driven by chance, and every "null" might include a real
signal overwhelmed by noise. In the long run, a real effect
can
be identified only by patiently accumulating replications of
similar analyses.
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