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Dr. Nelson:
Attached are the graphical results from a re-examination I recently
did of the EGG data for the Littleton, CO school tragedy on April 20,
1999.
A close friend of mine with whom I've shared ideas and information about
the GCP, and who is also a public school administrator, was very
interested in knowing about the reaction of the EGG network to the
Columbine High School shooting, and so I made these graphs of the
15-minute data for her. Since this followed the formal prediction made
for the event and included 2 additional context graphs, I thought you
might be interested in seeing them, as well.
The first graph is the formal Hollis Polk prediction, and the second is
the five-hour aftermath period that was reported as part of the formal
results. In both cases, the results were exactly the same as the hand
calculations reported in the Prediction Registry. The third and fourth
ones are the additional context graphs for timeperiods that were agreed
upon by my friend and myself, the third covering the full day of April
20 in MDT, and the fourth covering the 3 days surrounding the shootings.
I thought the trend preceding the event in the full day graph to be
particularly interesting from the visual standpoint, seemingly
suggestive of an event "pre-response." The 3-day graph I'm not sure how
to interpret, as it mostly looks to me that only random noise is
present.
I also have some other late analyses that I've been working on that I
will be getting to you very soon, including my more extensive
re-examination of the September 11, 2001 data in 15-minutes.
Regards,
Bryan Williams, UNM
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