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This year again we use the longstanding predictions of a
meanshift (squared Stouffer Z) during 10 minutes surrounding
midnight, and a variance decrease with a minimum at
midnight. These two measures have been assessed for each New
Year since 1998-1999, a total of 13 years.
The probability for the squared Stouffer Z for this year is
not significant at p=0.611 with Z=-0.282
For the Variance decrease, a comparison with the distribution of
10000 permutations of the data indicates a modest
probability of 0.340 and Z=0.412, in accord with the prediction.
In addition to the
two figures above representing the results for the current
year, a composite over the 13 years is shown
for the variance decrease prediction, which is supported
with a p-value of 0.030 and Z=1.879.
The meanshift is slightly positive, with Z = 0.21.
The following figure is a graph of the average of the
variance over 12-years.
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