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This year again we use the longstanding predictions of a
meanshift (squared Stouffer Z) during 10 minutes surrounding
midnight, and a variance decrease with a minimum at
midnight. These two measures have been assessed for each New
Year since 1998-1999, a total of 14 years.
The probability for the squared Stouffer Z for this year is
not significant at p=0.330 with Z=0.440.
For the Variance decrease, a comparison with the distribution of
10000 permutations of the data indicates a modest
probability of 0.185 and Z=0.898, in accord with the prediction.
A simpler calculation of the variance deviation during the 10-minute period
surrounding midnight yields an estimated Z of 1.333.
In addition to the
two figures above representing the results for the current
year, a composite over the 14 years is shown
for the two measures.
The meanshift is slightly positive, with p = 0.349 and Z = 0.387.
But the variance decrease prediction calculated by permutation analysis
is more strongly supported with a p-value of 0.035 and Z=1.757.
A simpler calculation addresses the implicit prediction that the
variance will be low around midnight. If we look at midnight +/- 5
minutes, the deviation is similar, with a slightly larger estimated
Z-score of 2.113.
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