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This year again we use the longstanding predictions of a
meanshift (squared Stouffer Z) during 10 minutes surrounding
midnight, and a variance decrease with a minimum at
midnight. These two measures have been assessed for each New
Year since 1998-1999, a total of 11 years. The probability
for the squared Stouffer Z for this year is
nearly significant at p=0.151 with Z=1.033.
For the Variance decrease, a comparison with the distribution of
10000 permutations of the data indicates a modest
probability of 0.307 and Z=0.505 according with the
prediction.
In addition to the
two figures above representing the results for the current
year, a composite
over the 11 years is also shown. The meanshift is
nonsignificantly negative, contrary to the original
prediction. The variance decrease prediction is supported
with a p-value of 0.028 and Z=1.909.
The following figure is an enlarged version of the 10-year average of
the variance shown above, right.
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