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This year again we use the longstanding predictions of a
meanshift (squared Stouffer Z) during 10 minutes surrounding
midnight, and a variance decrease with a minimum at
midnight. These two measures have been assessed for each New
Year since 1998-1999, a total of 12 years.
The probability for the squared Stouffer Z for this year is
positive but not significant at p=0.187 with Z=0.887.
For the Variance decrease, a comparison with the distribution of
10000 permutations of the data indicates a modest
probability of 0.203 and Z=0.829, in accord with the prediction.
In addition to the
two figures above representing the results for the current
year, a composite over the 12 years is shown
for the variance decrease prediction, which is supported
with a p-value of 0.030 and Z=1.879.
The meanshift is nonsignificantly negative, contrary to the original
prediction.
The following figure is a graph of the average of the
variance over 12-years.
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