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On December 14, the big news was that Saddam Hussein had been captured
the evening before at about 8:30 pm local time in Iraq. The formal
prediction period was set to begin at 8:00 to include a little time
leading up to the capture, and then several hours, until 03:00 on the
14th, to allow the word to spread (the GMT times are from 17:00 to 24:00
on the 13th.)
The result is essentially flat, with no trend over this period of seven
hours, except for a brief but visually striking excursion
just after the capture. The Chisquare is 25160 on 25200 df, for p =
0.570.
An exploration to see whether the announcement and consequent full-bore
media coverage might be correlated with GCP network structure shows no
substantial indication of a response.
The following figure comprises the data for the
next day, with President Bush's speech at 07:00 marked.
The data in this graph are contiguous with the formal sequence shown in
the figure above.
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