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Via email, I received a prediction from Don Watson that the
train crash in Turkey, Jul 22 2004 should have an impression on the GCP
network.
Initial reports placed the death toll at 139, but officials later
lowered the number of fatalities.
A day later, CNN reported
"At least 36 people were killed and 43
injured Thursday when a high-speed train derailed in northwestern
Turkey, according to a Turkish health ministry official."
Don wrote that the reason for his prediction isn't the number of
folks killed, but the magnitude of the hullabaloo--and there's been
a lot of that, mainly because this was
a brand new state-of-the-art train running on old, worn out tracks.
In any case it was set as a formal prediction, with the time specified
as 07:15 to 11:15 am local time (04:15 to 08:15 GMT). The crash was at
07:45. The result is a strong backward trend, with Chisquare of 14288
on 14400 df, p=0.745 and Z=0.657.
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