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Along with vast numbers of other Americans, including people on both
sides of the political spectrum, I
was deeply saddened by the news that Senator Paul Wellstone, the
passionately liberal Democrat whose
re-election campaign was vital to control of the Senate, was killed
in a plane crash in northern Minnesota
on Friday along with his wife, daughter and five others.
The twin-engine private plane went down about 10 a.m. in freezing
rain and light snow near the
Eveleth-Virginia Municipal Airport, about 175 miles north of
Minneapolis.
After worrying about the US-centric nature of the event, I decided
to make a formal prediction after all,
because there is a poignancy about this sad occurence
that I think is one of the elements of a "global event". The
crash occurred at about 10:00 Minnesota time, and I decided on an
event duration of two hours beginning then. The analysis period was thus
from 15:00 to 17:00 GMT, on 25 October, 2002. Standard analysis and medium
confidence.
The following figure shows the result, which has chi-square of 7288.6 on
7200 df, for a p-value of 0.230.
Since this is a US-centric event, it makes sense to have an exploratory
look at the behavior
of the US eggs only. The following figure shows the result from the 18
eggs that are located in the US, including Alaska. The trend is much
more impressive and has a terminal accumulation of
chi-square 7402.1 on 7200 df, for p = 0.047.
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